How do I convince the party leadership that I am the most eligible candidate from this seat?
Am I eligible to get party ticket to contest election?
Am I eligible to get ticket to contest MLA election (assembly election or vidhan sabha election)? Am I eligible to contest MP election (parliamentary election)? Am I eligible to contest Counselor elction/ward election or local panchayat election
What do party leaders and top leadership see in a candidate while deciding whom to give tickets?
How does party leadership recognize me as the most eligible candidate from my seat?
What are the factors based on which ticket distribution is made?
I don’t have money. Why will the party leadership give me ticket?
What all I need to do to beat my opponents and win election?
I am new to political field. I want to be a leader. I want to contest election. How do I begin?
These are some of the common questions which cross our mind while we plan to contest election. To a larger extent, ticket distribution process is done by following certain guidelines by the party leadership keeping in mind the winability of the candidate from that particular seat which means how many votes will the candidate be getting when he will be contesting from that particular seat? Total number of votes casted in favour of a candidate is a sum of 2 key vote banks:
- Party vote bank
- Candidate vote bank
Sum of these 2 vote banks decide the winning chances in a constituency. Party vote bank is fixed. A candidate should prove himself as the major vote influencer in candidate vote bank category compared to other aspirants. If he is able to convince the party leadership over his vote bank, he gets the ticket.
If you have any question or need any kind of support, get in touch.
We did Punjab Survey with Janta Ka Reporter for a sample size 3000 respondents, 1000 of them were from Delhi and 2000 from Punjab. The survey was done before Muktasar Rally of Arvind Kejriwal in January’16. The objective of the survey was to check the popularity of Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi and Punjab and assess ground situation of Punjab.
During Bihar Elections(Oct-Nov’2015), we worked for Zee Media Corporation Ltd. ZMCL, and did 3 Opinion Polls and Exit Poll which featured on Zee News and other Zee Media networks.
Initial 2 Opinion Polls were of sample size 35000, 3rd Opinion Poll sample size was 50000 respondents and the Exit Poll had over 1,00,000 respondents.
About Education Survey: Once seated to power, Delhi Education Minister, Shri Manish Sisodia asked us to undertake feedback of 12th Pass students of Delhi Govt on their experience with schools and their suggestion on areas of improvement with regard to Principal, Teachers, Infrastructure, Academics, Extracurriculars and Vocational Education.
Scale of Survey: A total of 35,035 recently 12th pass students from 720 schools of NCT of Delhi Govt., 170 candidates from each school, were contacted as a part of this feedback collection exercise. 16639 students participated in this study.
About Call Campaign: Call Campaign is a crowd sourced volunteer campaign where a caller calls on a unique Toll-Free number and gets connected to a new voter each new time. The volunteer interacts with the voter explaining the motive behind the call. It is the cheapest and the most effective method of canvassing enabling all segments of supporters to participate in campaign.
Scale of Call Campaign: Our team developed, managed and promoted this call campaign platform for AAP. In a span of 45 days 10 lakh calls were made by over 25000 unique volunteers spread all across the globe from 42 countries and 28 states. Training of these volunteers was another massive task to ensure basic uniformity and effectiveness of time and money both for the volunteer and the party.
Internal Survey for AAP: After the call, there was a basic feedback survey administered with the volunteer to know the inclination of the voter. Based on this feedback survey form and independent automated IVR based response collection mechanism for each vidhan sabha of Delhi, out of 70, we predicted 66 seats to AAP and 4 to BJP. Our’s was the closest prediction. Actual result was AAP-67, BJP-3 seats.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) list of 21 candidates for 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections:
Dharminder Singh – Ghaziabad
Sukhwinder Singh Happy – Bilaspur (Rampur)
Gurpreet Singh Bagga – Saharanpur
Tejwant Singh Raina – Jhansi
Smt. Raj Rai Singh – Pilibhit
Sh. Rai Singh – Pallia
Jaswant Singh – Mehandi
Surinder Partap – Mohan Lal Ganj (reserve)
Suresh Chand Pushkar – Kasta (reserve)
Ram Singh Verma – Gela
Tarlochan Singh Chhabra – Rai Bareli
Smt. Anju Singh – Saraini
Ram Hirde – Zannia (Gajipur)
Raja Rainder Singh – Uchahar
Santokh Singh – Partap Garh
Thakur Raj Kishor – Ferozabad
Kartar Singh – Muradabad
Smt. Anita Bhardwaj – Barauli
Harjit Singh Neta Ji – Meerut Cantt.
Balwinder Singh Billa – Barkehra
Smt. Deepa Singh – Lucknow Cantt.
Uttar Pradesh is undergoing one of the most interesting power battles till date. The bipolar fight of previous elections, is a quadrangular fight between the 4 key parties, namely BJP, BSP, SP and Congress. None, want to settle for second in the race. What does vote share data have to say on the upcoming UP elections of 2017?
|Last 4 Elections of UP
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP bagged 71 seats and got an unprecedented high vote share of 42.3%. Their morale is quite high. But all the votes that Bharatiya Janata Party secured in 2014 are not part of it’s core vote bank, which was genrally around 16-18% in the past. Many voters, as high as 22%, voted for Narendra Modi as PM rather than to BJP in Lok Sabha 2014. How many of them will vote for UP BJP depends on a mixed bag of Modi’s performance and state campaigning. If BJP is able to retain 3/4 of its 2014 vote share, it will be forming govt in UP.
The vote share of Bahujan Samaj Party has been consistently declining in each consecutive election since 2007. How much it will pick up is to be witnessed. An interesting thing about BSP is that, they didn’t participate in the recently held by-polls in 2 seats of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati’s idea was to conserve energy for the major upcoming battle of 2017 elections.
Samajwadi Party is currently in power in UP. They have maintained 1st or 2nd position be it state elections or national elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav is considered to be a master strategist in making politically favorable alliances with individuals and parties and obliging them with their due share.
Congress(INC), apart from once getting 18.3% vote share during 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, otherwise remain close to the benchmark of 10% votes. But the underdogs are emerging. Thanks to the campaign strategies of Prashant Kishor. He is successful in changing the status quo of Congress from a new panel party to the one conducting large numbers of public outreach programs.
All in all, close corners in Uttar Pradesh. What do you have to say?
As a part of our voter list research related to the Uttar Pradesh demographic population, while trying to categorize the voters in terms of the caste based vote bank towards the respective parties, we observed that in the latest voter lists have mainly the first names of the voters and their surnames are missing.
If I give you statistical figures than in a random constituency say Barthana in Etawah district having around 3.8 lakh voters, 2.1 lakh voters i.e. 55% voters have only their first names mentioned in the latest electoral rolls available on the website of State Election Commission of Uttar Pradesh. 45% of the voters have their full names mentioned.
When we did this exercise for the entire electorate of UP, we found that as large as 60% of the voters have only their first names mentioned in the respective voter lists of their booths. UP has around 13.5 crore voters as of today.
Amongst male voters: 56% have just their first names, 15% have Kumar as their second names. So essentially 29% male voters have non Kumar surnames. Similarly, amongst female voters: 65% have just their first names, 19% write Devi as their second name and 3% are Kumari’ in surnames. These figures are at UP state level. None of these surnames amongst males or females says anything of their caste.
This name related tweaking by Election Commission does not impact the voter identification and tracking as each voter has unique EPIC number using which voter is still identified but omission of surnames hides any hint of the caste of the voter. Can such a move by Election Commission shift the political strategy discourse away from caste? Or is it just advantageous to old established parties while newer parties and candidates are in disadvantageous position? These are some of the questions whose answer will unfold as election moves towards final laps.