Hardly 75 days left when the fate of bigwigs from Punjab will be sealed under the EVMs. Campaigns are in full swing and politicians are pushing their limits to get the attention of voters. We conducted telephonic surveys to know the mood of voters.
Survey included 3700 eligible voters from Punjab. Their choices and preferences were asked through telephonic interview. Survey was designed such that false and faulty replies can be filtered. The participants were selected taking into account the diversities of political choices. Diversity of population with respect to region, religion, age, caste, community etc were taken into account.
Instead of seats distribution, we tried to know the pulse of Punjab voters as a whole. Following are some findings:
Preference of voters in this political Dangal:
Preference of voters of different age groups:
Gender Wise Distribution of preference:
Region wise preference of Voters:
While our survey clearly gave an edge to AAP compared to other political parties, Congress is giving a tough competition. Clear majority for any political party will not be possible as per the current trends shown in survey. Few of the undertakings from the survey can be:
- Voters are not happy with Akalis. Anti incumbency is playing a crucial role but in situation of hung assembly, they will definitely be the king makers.
- Youth voters are specifically attracted toward AAP for their agenda of clean and developmental politics.
- While Majha region showing to be stronghold of Congress. AAP is leading in all other divisions, followed up closely by Congress.
We did Punjab Survey with Janta Ka Reporter for a sample size 3000 respondents, 1000 of them were from Delhi and 2000 from Punjab. The survey was done before Muktasar Rally of Arvind Kejriwal in January’16. The objective of the survey was to check the popularity of Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi and Punjab and assess ground situation of Punjab.
During Bihar Elections(Oct-Nov’2015), we worked for Zee Media Corporation Ltd. ZMCL, and did 3 Opinion Polls and Exit Poll which featured on Zee News and other Zee Media networks.
Initial 2 Opinion Polls were of sample size 35000, 3rd Opinion Poll sample size was 50000 respondents and the Exit Poll had over 1,00,000 respondents.
About Education Survey: Once seated to power, Delhi Education Minister, Shri Manish Sisodia asked us to undertake feedback of 12th Pass students of Delhi Govt on their experience with schools and their suggestion on areas of improvement with regard to Principal, Teachers, Infrastructure, Academics, Extracurriculars and Vocational Education.
Scale of Survey: A total of 35,035 recently 12th pass students from 720 schools of NCT of Delhi Govt., 170 candidates from each school, were contacted as a part of this feedback collection exercise. 16639 students participated in this study.
About Call Campaign: Call Campaign is a crowd sourced volunteer campaign where a caller calls on a unique Toll-Free number and gets connected to a new voter each new time. The volunteer interacts with the voter explaining the motive behind the call. It is the cheapest and the most effective method of canvassing enabling all segments of supporters to participate in campaign.
Scale of Call Campaign: Our team developed, managed and promoted this call campaign platform for AAP. In a span of 45 days 10 lakh calls were made by over 25000 unique volunteers spread all across the globe from 42 countries and 28 states. Training of these volunteers was another massive task to ensure basic uniformity and effectiveness of time and money both for the volunteer and the party.
Internal Survey for AAP: After the call, there was a basic feedback survey administered with the volunteer to know the inclination of the voter. Based on this feedback survey form and independent automated IVR based response collection mechanism for each vidhan sabha of Delhi, out of 70, we predicted 66 seats to AAP and 4 to BJP. Our’s was the closest prediction. Actual result was AAP-67, BJP-3 seats.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) list of 21 candidates for 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections:
Dharminder Singh – Ghaziabad
Sukhwinder Singh Happy – Bilaspur (Rampur)
Gurpreet Singh Bagga – Saharanpur
Tejwant Singh Raina – Jhansi
Smt. Raj Rai Singh – Pilibhit
Sh. Rai Singh – Pallia
Jaswant Singh – Mehandi
Surinder Partap – Mohan Lal Ganj (reserve)
Suresh Chand Pushkar – Kasta (reserve)
Ram Singh Verma – Gela
Tarlochan Singh Chhabra – Rai Bareli
Smt. Anju Singh – Saraini
Ram Hirde – Zannia (Gajipur)
Raja Rainder Singh – Uchahar
Santokh Singh – Partap Garh
Thakur Raj Kishor – Ferozabad
Kartar Singh – Muradabad
Smt. Anita Bhardwaj – Barauli
Harjit Singh Neta Ji – Meerut Cantt.
Balwinder Singh Billa – Barkehra
Smt. Deepa Singh – Lucknow Cantt.
Uttar Pradesh is undergoing one of the most interesting power battles till date. The bipolar fight of previous elections, is a quadrangular fight between the 4 key parties, namely BJP, BSP, SP and Congress. None, want to settle for second in the race. What does vote share data have to say on the upcoming UP elections of 2017?
|Last 4 Elections of UP
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP bagged 71 seats and got an unprecedented high vote share of 42.3%. Their morale is quite high. But all the votes that Bharatiya Janata Party secured in 2014 are not part of it’s core vote bank, which was genrally around 16-18% in the past. Many voters, as high as 22%, voted for Narendra Modi as PM rather than to BJP in Lok Sabha 2014. How many of them will vote for UP BJP depends on a mixed bag of Modi’s performance and state campaigning. If BJP is able to retain 3/4 of its 2014 vote share, it will be forming govt in UP.
The vote share of Bahujan Samaj Party has been consistently declining in each consecutive election since 2007. How much it will pick up is to be witnessed. An interesting thing about BSP is that, they didn’t participate in the recently held by-polls in 2 seats of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati’s idea was to conserve energy for the major upcoming battle of 2017 elections.
Samajwadi Party is currently in power in UP. They have maintained 1st or 2nd position be it state elections or national elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav is considered to be a master strategist in making politically favorable alliances with individuals and parties and obliging them with their due share.
Congress(INC), apart from once getting 18.3% vote share during 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, otherwise remain close to the benchmark of 10% votes. But the underdogs are emerging. Thanks to the campaign strategies of Prashant Kishor. He is successful in changing the status quo of Congress from a new panel party to the one conducting large numbers of public outreach programs.
All in all, close corners in Uttar Pradesh. What do you have to say?