Punjab ka Mood: Opinion Poll by Janta Ka Mood

Hardly 75 days left when the fate of bigwigs from Punjab will be sealed under the EVMs. Campaigns are in full swing and politicians are pushing their limits to get the attention of voters. We conducted telephonic surveys to know the mood of voters.

Survey included 3700 eligible voters from Punjab. Their choices and preferences were asked through telephonic interview. Survey was designed such that false and faulty replies can be filtered. The participants were selected taking into account the diversities of political choices. Diversity of population with respect to region, religion, age, caste, community etc were taken into account.

Instead of seats distribution, we tried to know the pulse of Punjab voters as a whole. Following are some findings:

Preference of voters in this political Dangal:

overall

 

Preference of voters of different age groups:

Gender Wise Distribution of preference:

Region wise preference of Voters:

region-wise-distribution

While our survey clearly gave an edge to AAP compared to other political parties, Congress is giving a tough competition. Clear majority for any political party will not be possible as per the current trends shown in survey. Few of the undertakings from the survey can be:

  • Voters are not happy with Akalis. Anti incumbency is playing a crucial role but in situation of hung assembly, they will definitely be the king makers.
  • Youth voters are specifically attracted toward AAP for their agenda of clean and developmental politics.
  • While Majha region showing to be stronghold of Congress. AAP is leading in all other divisions, followed up closely by Congress.

 

 

Punjab Election 2017 Contesting Candidates

District AC No. AC SAD+BJP Congress+ AAP APP+
Amritsar 11 Ajnala Amarpal Singh ‘Bony’ Rajpreet Singh Randhawa
12 Raja Sansi Veer Singh Lopoke  Jagjot Singh Dhillon
13 Majitha Bikram Singh Majithia
14 Jandiala Guru Harbhajan Singh
15 Amritsar North
16 Amritsar West Balwinder Singh Sahota
17 Amritsar Central
18 Amritsar East
19 Amritsar South  Inderbir Singh Nijjer
20 Attari Gulzar Singh Ranike  Jaswinder Singh Jahangir
25 Baba Bakala  Dalbir Singh Tong
Barnala 102 Bhadaur Balvir Singh Ghunas  Parimal Singh
103 Barnala  Meet Heyar
104 Mehal Kalan Ajeet Singh Shant Kulwant Singh Pandhuri
Bathinda 90 Rampura Phool Sikander Singh Maluka
91 Bhucho Mandi
92 Bathinda Sarup Chand Singla  Deepak Bansal
93 Bathinda Rural Rupinder Kaur
94 Talwandi Sabo Jeet Mohinder Singh Sidhu  Baljinder Kaur
95 Maur Janmeja Singh Sekhon
Faridkot 87 Faridkot Parambans Singh ‘Bunty’ Romana Gurdit Singh Sekhon
88 Kot Kapura Mantar Singh Brar Kultar Singh Sandhwa
89 Jaiton  Master Baldev Singh
Fatehgarh Sahib 54 Bassi Pathan Santokh Singh Salana
55 Fatehgarh Sahib Didar Singh Bhatti Lakhbir Singh Rai
56 Amloh Gurpreet Singh ‘Raju’ Khanna Gurpreet Singh Bhatti
Fazilka 79 Jalalabad  Bhagwant Mann
80 Fazilka Samarbir Singh Sidhu
81 Abohar
82 Baluana Parkash Singh Bhatti Giriraj Rajora
Ferozpur 75 Zira Hari Singh Zira Gurpreet Singh Gora
76 Ferozpur Narender Sandha
77 Ferozpur Rural Joginder Singh Jindu Mohan Singh Phalianwala
78 Guru Har Sahai Vardev Singh Maan ‘Noni’ Malkit Thind
Gurdaspur 4 Gurdaspur Gurbachan Singh Babbehali  Amarjeet Singh Chahal
5 Dina Nagar  Joginder Chhina
6 Qadian Sewa Singh Sekhwan Kawanlpreet Singh Kaki
7 Batala Lakhbir Singh Lodhinangal
8 Shri Hargobindpur  Amarpal Singh
9 Fatehgarh Churian Nirmal Singh Kahlon  Gurvinder Singh Shampura
10 Dera Baba Nanak Sucha Singh Langah  Gurpartap Singh
Hoshiarpur 39 Mukerian  Sulakhan Singh Jaggi
40 Dasua  Balbir Kaur Phull
41 Urmar Arvinder Singh Rasoolpur  Jasveer Singh Gill
42 Sham Chaurasi  Dr Rajvot Singh
43 Hoshiarpur  Paramjit Sachdeva
44 Chabbewal Sohan Singh Thandal  Raman Kumar
45 Garhshankar Surinder Singh Bhullewal Rathan  Jai Kishan Singh Rodi
Jalandhar 30 Phillaur Baldev Singh Khaira  Swaroop Singh Khadiana
31 Nakodar Gurpartap Singh Wadala  Jagtar Singh Sanghera
32 Shahkot Ajit Singh Kohar  Dr Amarjit Singh Thind
33 Kartarpur Satpal Mall  Chandan Grewal
34 Jalandhar West  Darshan Lal Bhagat
35 Jalandhar Central Dr Sanjeev Sharma
36 Jalandhar North  Gulshan Sharma
37 Jalandhar Cantt Sarabjit Singh Makkar
38 Adampur Pawan Kumar Tinu  Hans Raj Rana
Kapurthala 26 Bhullath  Sukhpal Khaira
27 Kapurthala Paramjit Singh Pamma
28 Sultanpur Lodhi Upinderjit Kaur Sajjan Singh Cheema
29 Phagwara
Ludhiana 57 Khanna Ranjit Singh Talwandi  Anil Dutt Phalli
58 Samrala Santa Singh Umaidpur Sarabans Singh Manki
59 Sahnewal Sharanjit Singh Dhillon Harjot Singh Bains
60 Ludhiana East Ranjit Singh Dhillon  Daljeet Singh Grewal ‘Bhola’
61 Ludhiana South Hira Singh Gabria
62 Atam Nagar Gurmeet Singh Kular
63 Ludhiana Central
64 Ludhiana West Ahbaab Singh Grewal
65 Ludhiana North
66 Gill Darshan Singh Shivalik  Jeewan Sanghwal
67 Payal Isher Singh Meharban Gurpreet Singh Lapran
68 Dakha Manpreet Singh Ayali  HS Phoolka
69 Raikot Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal  Jagtar Singh Jagga Hissowal
70 Jagraon Amarjit Kaur Sahoke Sarabjit Kaur Manuke
Mansa 96 Mansa  Nazar Singh
97 Sardulgarh Dilraj Singh Bhunder
98 Budhlada  Budhram ‘Principal’
Moga 71 Nihal Singh Wala SR Kaler  Manjit Singh
72 Bagha Purana GS Kang
73 Moga  Ramesh Grover
74 Dharamkot Tota Singh  Dr Ranyodh Singh
Mukatsar 83 Lambi
84 Gidarbaha Hardeep Singh ‘Dimpy’ Dhillon  Jagdeep Sandhu
85 Malout  Baldev Singh Azad
86 Mukatsar Kanwarjeet Singh ‘Rozy’ Barkandi Jagdeep Singh Brar
Nawanshahr 46 Banga Sukhwinder Singh ‘Sukhi’  Harjot Kaur
47 Nawanshahr Jarnail Singh Wahid  Charanjit Singh Channi
48 Balachaur Nand Lal Brig Raj Kumar
Pathankot 1 Sujanpur  Kulbhushan Minhas
2 Bhoa  Dr Vinod
3 Pathankot Raj Kumar Mahajan
Patiala 109 Nabha Kabir Dass  Dev Mann
110 Patiala Rural Satbir Singh Khatra
111 Rajpura
113 Ghanaur Harpreet Kaur Mukhmailpur  Anu Randhawa
114 Sanaur Harinder Pal Singh Chandumajra Kuldeep Kaur Tohra
115 Patiala  Karanvir Singh Tiwana
116 Samana Surjit Singh Rakhra  Jagtar Singh Rajla
117 Shutrana Vaninder Kaur Loomba  Palwinder Kaur
Rup Nagar 49 Anandpur Sahib
50 Rup Nagar Daljit Singh Cheema Amarjeet Singh
51 Chamkaur Sahib Nirmal Singh  Dr Charanjit Singh
S.A.S. Nagar 52 Kharar  Kanwar Sandhu
53 S.A.S. Nagar Himmat Singh Shergill
112 Dera Bassi NK Sharma  Sarabjit Kaur
Sangrur 99 Lehra Parminder Singh Dhindsa
100 Dirba  Harpal Singh Cheema
101 Sunam  Aman Arora
105 Malerkotla  Arshad Dali
106 Amargarh Iqbal Singh Jhundan
107 Dhuri Jasvir Singh Sekhon (Jassi)
108 Sangrur Parkash Chand Garg
Tarn Taran 21 Tarn Taran Harmeet Singh Sandhu  Kartar Singh
22 Khem Karan Virsa Singh Valtoha Capt Bikramjeet Singh
23 Patti Adaish Partap Singh Kairon
24 Khadur Sahib Ravinder Singh Brahmpura Bhupender Singh Bittu

Survey for Education Ministry, Govt. of NCT Delhi

About Education Survey: Once seated to power, Delhi Education Minister, Shri Manish Sisodia asked us to undertake feedback of 12th Pass students of Delhi Govt on their experience with schools and their suggestion on areas of improvement with regard to Principal, Teachers, Infrastructure, Academics, Extracurriculars and Vocational Education.
Scale of Survey: A total of 35,035 recently 12th pass students from 720 schools of NCT of Delhi Govt., 170 candidates from each school, were contacted as a part of this feedback collection exercise. 16639 students participated in this study.

Call Campaign & Internal Survey for AAP, Delhi’15

About Call Campaign: Call Campaign is a crowd sourced volunteer campaign where a caller calls on a unique Toll-Free number and gets connected to a new voter each new time. The volunteer interacts with the voter explaining the motive behind the call. It is the cheapest and the most effective method of canvassing enabling all segments of supporters to participate in campaign.

 

Scale of Call Campaign: Our team developed, managed and promoted this call campaign platform for AAP. In a span of 45 days 10 lakh calls were made by over 25000 unique volunteers spread all across the globe from 42 countries and 28 states. Training of these volunteers was another massive task to ensure basic uniformity and effectiveness of time and money both for the volunteer and the party.  

 

Internal Survey for AAP: After the call, there was a basic feedback survey administered with the volunteer to know the inclination of the voter. Based on this feedback survey form and independent automated IVR based response collection mechanism for each vidhan sabha of Delhi, out of 70, we predicted 66 seats to AAP and 4 to BJP. Our’s was the closest prediction. Actual result was AAP-67, BJP-3 seats.

SAD list of 21 candidates for 2017 UP Assembly elections

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) list of 21 candidates for 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections:

Dharminder Singh – Ghaziabad

Sukhwinder Singh Happy – Bilaspur (Rampur)

Gurpreet Singh Bagga – Saharanpur

Tejwant Singh Raina – Jhansi

Smt. Raj Rai Singh – Pilibhit

Sh. Rai Singh – Pallia

Jaswant Singh – Mehandi

Surinder Partap – Mohan Lal Ganj (reserve)

Suresh Chand Pushkar – Kasta (reserve)

Ram Singh Verma – Gela

Tarlochan Singh Chhabra – Rai Bareli

Smt. Anju Singh – Saraini

Ram Hirde – Zannia (Gajipur)

Raja Rainder Singh – Uchahar

Santokh Singh – Partap Garh

Thakur Raj Kishor – Ferozabad

Kartar Singh – Muradabad

Smt. Anita Bhardwaj – Barauli

Harjit Singh Neta Ji – Meerut Cantt.

Balwinder Singh Billa – Barkehra

Smt. Deepa Singh – Lucknow Cantt.

UP: Vote Share of Key Parties in Last 4 Elections

Uttar Pradesh is undergoing one of the most interesting power battles till date. The bipolar fight of previous elections, is a quadrangular fight between the 4 key parties, namely BJP, BSP, SP and Congress. None, want to settle for second in the race. What does vote share data have to say on the upcoming UP elections of 2017?

Last 4 Elections of UP 2007
Vote Share
2009
Vote Share
2012
Vote Share
2014
Vote Share
2017
Vote Share
BJP 17.0% 17.5% 15.0% 42.3% ?
BSP 30.4% 27.4% 25.9% 19.6% ?
SP 25.4% 23.3% 29.1% 22.2% ?
Congress 8.6% 18.3% 11.7% 7.5% ?

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP bagged 71 seats and got an unprecedented high vote share of 42.3%. Their morale is quite high. But all the votes that Bharatiya Janata Party secured in 2014 are not part of it’s core vote bank, which was genrally around 16-18% in the past. Many voters, as high as 22%, voted for Narendra Modi as PM rather than to BJP in Lok Sabha 2014. How many of them will vote for UP BJP depends on a mixed bag of Modi’s performance and state campaigning. If BJP is able to retain 3/4 of its 2014 vote share, it will be forming govt in UP.

The vote share of Bahujan Samaj Party has been consistently declining in each consecutive election since 2007. How much it will pick up is to be witnessed. An interesting thing about BSP is that, they didn’t participate in the recently held by-polls in 2 seats of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati’s idea was to conserve energy for the major upcoming battle of 2017 elections.

Samajwadi Party is currently in power in UP. They have maintained 1st or 2nd position be it state elections or national elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav is considered to be a master strategist in making politically favorable alliances with individuals and parties and obliging them with their due share.

Congress(INC), apart from once getting 18.3% vote share during 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, otherwise remain close to the benchmark of 10% votes. But the underdogs are emerging. Thanks to the campaign strategies of Prashant Kishor. He is successful in changing the status quo of Congress from a new panel party to the one conducting large numbers of public outreach programs.

All in all, close corners in Uttar Pradesh. What do you have to say?

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