The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) list of 21 candidates for 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections:
Dharminder Singh – Ghaziabad
Sukhwinder Singh Happy – Bilaspur (Rampur)
Gurpreet Singh Bagga – Saharanpur
Tejwant Singh Raina – Jhansi
Smt. Raj Rai Singh – Pilibhit
Sh. Rai Singh – Pallia
Jaswant Singh – Mehandi
Surinder Partap – Mohan Lal Ganj (reserve)
Suresh Chand Pushkar – Kasta (reserve)
Ram Singh Verma – Gela
Tarlochan Singh Chhabra – Rai Bareli
Smt. Anju Singh – Saraini
Ram Hirde – Zannia (Gajipur)
Raja Rainder Singh – Uchahar
Santokh Singh – Partap Garh
Thakur Raj Kishor – Ferozabad
Kartar Singh – Muradabad
Smt. Anita Bhardwaj – Barauli
Harjit Singh Neta Ji – Meerut Cantt.
Balwinder Singh Billa – Barkehra
Smt. Deepa Singh – Lucknow Cantt.
Uttar Pradesh is undergoing one of the most interesting power battles till date. The bipolar fight of previous elections, is a quadrangular fight between the 4 key parties, namely BJP, BSP, SP and Congress. None, want to settle for second in the race. What does vote share data have to say on the upcoming UP elections of 2017?
|Last 4 Elections of UP
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP bagged 71 seats and got an unprecedented high vote share of 42.3%. Their morale is quite high. But all the votes that Bharatiya Janata Party secured in 2014 are not part of it’s core vote bank, which was genrally around 16-18% in the past. Many voters, as high as 22%, voted for Narendra Modi as PM rather than to BJP in Lok Sabha 2014. How many of them will vote for UP BJP depends on a mixed bag of Modi’s performance and state campaigning. If BJP is able to retain 3/4 of its 2014 vote share, it will be forming govt in UP.
The vote share of Bahujan Samaj Party has been consistently declining in each consecutive election since 2007. How much it will pick up is to be witnessed. An interesting thing about BSP is that, they didn’t participate in the recently held by-polls in 2 seats of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati’s idea was to conserve energy for the major upcoming battle of 2017 elections.
Samajwadi Party is currently in power in UP. They have maintained 1st or 2nd position be it state elections or national elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav is considered to be a master strategist in making politically favorable alliances with individuals and parties and obliging them with their due share.
Congress(INC), apart from once getting 18.3% vote share during 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, otherwise remain close to the benchmark of 10% votes. But the underdogs are emerging. Thanks to the campaign strategies of Prashant Kishor. He is successful in changing the status quo of Congress from a new panel party to the one conducting large numbers of public outreach programs.
All in all, close corners in Uttar Pradesh. What do you have to say?
As a part of our voter list research related to the Uttar Pradesh demographic population, while trying to categorize the voters in terms of the caste based vote bank towards the respective parties, we observed that in the latest voter lists have mainly the first names of the voters and their surnames are missing.
If I give you statistical figures than in a random constituency say Barthana in Etawah district having around 3.8 lakh voters, 2.1 lakh voters i.e. 55% voters have only their first names mentioned in the latest electoral rolls available on the website of State Election Commission of Uttar Pradesh. 45% of the voters have their full names mentioned.
When we did this exercise for the entire electorate of UP, we found that as large as 60% of the voters have only their first names mentioned in the respective voter lists of their booths. UP has around 13.5 crore voters as of today.
Amongst male voters: 56% have just their first names, 15% have Kumar as their second names. So essentially 29% male voters have non Kumar surnames. Similarly, amongst female voters: 65% have just their first names, 19% write Devi as their second name and 3% are Kumari’ in surnames. These figures are at UP state level. None of these surnames amongst males or females says anything of their caste.
This name related tweaking by Election Commission does not impact the voter identification and tracking as each voter has unique EPIC number using which voter is still identified but omission of surnames hides any hint of the caste of the voter. Can such a move by Election Commission shift the political strategy discourse away from caste? Or is it just advantageous to old established parties while newer parties and candidates are in disadvantageous position? These are some of the questions whose answer will unfold as election moves towards final laps.